"Times are really hard and will even be harder in the next 12 months.  My job here is reading and monitoring all the gloomy forecasts and assessing the global inherent/emerging risks in Maersk.  The current global financial crisis is really very bad.  There will be more uncertainties in the next 12 months.  All industries are affected!   One of the highest risk is actually on CONTRACTUAL PARTIES and OBLIGATIONS.  We will see business contracts being cancelled, customers and suppliers going bankrupt or simply running out of liquidity, more banks going bust.   There will be very limited cashflow in markets.  Cost of borrowing will go up.  Financial institutions will restrict lending to each other.  Applying for future loans will be more complicated than ever with more collaterals and background checks required.   In short keep an eye on your cashflow and accts receivables.  Limit your credit exposure to customers.  Cut down on un-necessary spendings.

 

Metrobank and BDO are the 2 hardest hit from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in MNL.  Avoid gambling in stocks.  Enter stock market only by end 2009 when things have settled down.  There will be a lot of goose chase in the coming months investigating what we really went wrong and how it can be avoided in future. All these will be exercise in futility as they will never get to the bottom of all these.   The world economy has enjoyed so much wealth flowing during the last 10 years, with its peak in 2006.  There was so much speculations and hedging on many things -- real estate, commodity prices -- causing inflation to surge.  Many companies simply fogot to exercise proper Risk Management, abused Governance, lacked Transparency and did not do full Disclosures on their financial state. In short we now learn that there are too many irresponsible corporations around the world and greedy middlemen in between trades and business.

 

People will have to go back to basic.  Agriculture and food industry will remain robust. Population will continue to grow, people need to eat, people need to survive.  Be on the look out for alternative investments or business ventures in agriculture - be it on fishery, poultry or farming.  Of course, this will demand different risks on pests, health and safety standards but all these risks are controllable.   Imports from made in China has taken a toll and there's no more confidence on chinese food products.   Avoid engaging in commodity trades for the next 2 yrs - incl. dairy, gold, oil, etc.   Commodity prices are quite unstable and global tariff and tax regulations will only be more complex in the next 5 yrs. So much focus are being put on regulatory compliance (tax, labour, health, safety, security and environment) globally.  Governments backing up banking institutions will have to replenish cash thru collections of newer/higher taxes.

 

If you have excess cash, hang on to it.  Cash is king.  Spread out your savings in different banks.  Take note of PDIC's bank guarantees.  Stay on top of current events.  Discuss the current global crisis at home, engage your kids in the dialogue. Make them understand what is going on. Do not underestimate their wisdom and innocence in economics."

-Uncle Ramon

"Times are really hard and will even be harder in the next 12 months.  My job here is reading and monitoring all the gloomy forecasts and assessing the global inherent/emerging risks in Maersk.  The current global financial crisis is really very bad.  There will be more uncertainties in the next 12 months.  All industries are affected!   One of the highest risk is actually on CONTRACTUAL PARTIES and OBLIGATIONS.  We will see business contracts being cancelled, customers and suppliers going bankrupt or simply running out of liquidity, more banks going bust.   There will be very limited cashflow in markets.  Cost of borrowing will go up.  Financial institutions will restrict lending to each other.  Applying for future loans will be more complicated than ever with more collaterals and background checks required.   In short keep an eye on your cashflow and accts receivables.  Limit your credit exposure to customers.  Cut down on un-necessary spendings.

 

Metrobank and BDO are the 2 hardest hit from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in MNL.  Avoid gambling in stocks.  Enter stock market only by end 2009 when things have settled down.  There will be a lot of goose chase in the coming months investigating what we really went wrong and how it can be avoided in future. All these will be exercise in futility as they will never get to the bottom of all these.   The world economy has enjoyed so much wealth flowing during the last 10 years, with its peak in 2006.  There was so much speculations and hedging on many things -- real estate, commodity prices -- causing inflation to surge.  Many companies simply fogot to exercise proper Risk Management, abused Governance, lacked Transparency and did not do full Disclosures on their financial state. In short we now learn that there are too many irresponsible corporations around the world and greedy middlemen in between trades and business.

 

People will have to go back to basic.  Agriculture and food industry will remain robust. Population will continue to grow, people need to eat, people need to survive.  Be on the look out for alternative investments or business ventures in agriculture - be it on fishery, poultry or farming.  Of course, this will demand different risks on pests, health and safety standards but all these risks are controllable.   Imports from made in China has taken a toll and there's no more confidence on chinese food products.   Avoid engaging in commodity trades for the next 2 yrs - incl. dairy, gold, oil, etc.   Commodity prices are quite unstable and global tariff and tax regulations will only be more complex in the next 5 yrs. So much focus are being put on regulatory compliance (tax, labour, health, safety, security and environment) globally.  Governments backing up banking institutions will have to replenish cash thru collections of newer/higher taxes.

 

If you have excess cash, hang on to it.  Cash is king.  Spread out your savings in different banks.  Take note of PDIC's bank guarantees.  Stay on top of current events.  Discuss the current global crisis at home, engage your kids in the dialogue. Make them understand what is going on. Do not underestimate their wisdom and innocence in economics."

-Uncle Ramon